![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Von.. Two.. Two Recounts!! Ahahah.
So, it appears that we are headed into our second statewide recount in as many years. I've been nervously contemplating what will happen if Pawlenty (our current governor) stays on past January - particularly as far as redistricting is concerned. But a news piece today has renewed my hope that this will not drag on past January.
Assuming the article I read was accurate, the number of rejected absentee ballots is about 3000. The difference in votes between Dayton and Emmer is about 8800. In 2008, the recount (including the examination of all challenged ballots), had concluded by December 19th. After that, it was primarily litigation over which rejected absentee ballots should have been included in the count. There were 12,000 rejected absentee ballots in that election, and less than 300 votes separating the candidates at that point in the process. (At the end of all the litigation, Franken ended up ahead by 312 votes.)
So, the way the process goes forward at the moment is that in the next few weeks county officials will double check and verify election night tabulations reported to the secretary of state's office. It is not unusual for numbers to change a bit in this time. In 2008, MPR conducted an analysis of statewide elections over the prior 10 years and found that the average change in vote totals as reported on election night compared to the certified result is 1,500 votes.
So, assuming worst case scenario based on that, after all of the double-checking has taken place, let's say that the difference in votes is down to 7300. The canvassing board certifies that vote on November 23rd, and the official recount begins. This is the phase where every ballot is physically examined and hand-counted, with representatives from each party watching. The representatives can challenge ballots, for a variety of reasons. In spite of the fact that Republicans were more aggressive about challenging ballots, Franken had picked up 274 votes at the end of this process, putting him in the lead. I expect Republicans to be even more aggressive about challenging ballots this time around. I expect the numbers will change a bit after this process too. Let's err on the safe side a bit, and say that Emmer picks up 5 times as many votes as Franken did in 2008, so about another 1500. Now Dayton is only up by 5800 votes.
Even if every single one of those rejected absentee ballots was cast in Emmer's favor, he still loses the election. I don't think there will be the same protracted legal battle over them.
Assuming the article I read was accurate, the number of rejected absentee ballots is about 3000. The difference in votes between Dayton and Emmer is about 8800. In 2008, the recount (including the examination of all challenged ballots), had concluded by December 19th. After that, it was primarily litigation over which rejected absentee ballots should have been included in the count. There were 12,000 rejected absentee ballots in that election, and less than 300 votes separating the candidates at that point in the process. (At the end of all the litigation, Franken ended up ahead by 312 votes.)
So, the way the process goes forward at the moment is that in the next few weeks county officials will double check and verify election night tabulations reported to the secretary of state's office. It is not unusual for numbers to change a bit in this time. In 2008, MPR conducted an analysis of statewide elections over the prior 10 years and found that the average change in vote totals as reported on election night compared to the certified result is 1,500 votes.
So, assuming worst case scenario based on that, after all of the double-checking has taken place, let's say that the difference in votes is down to 7300. The canvassing board certifies that vote on November 23rd, and the official recount begins. This is the phase where every ballot is physically examined and hand-counted, with representatives from each party watching. The representatives can challenge ballots, for a variety of reasons. In spite of the fact that Republicans were more aggressive about challenging ballots, Franken had picked up 274 votes at the end of this process, putting him in the lead. I expect Republicans to be even more aggressive about challenging ballots this time around. I expect the numbers will change a bit after this process too. Let's err on the safe side a bit, and say that Emmer picks up 5 times as many votes as Franken did in 2008, so about another 1500. Now Dayton is only up by 5800 votes.
Even if every single one of those rejected absentee ballots was cast in Emmer's favor, he still loses the election. I don't think there will be the same protracted legal battle over them.